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TV Ad Spend Down for 2013; 2014 Looking Better

4 Dec, 2013 By: Doug McPherson

LOS ANGELES – Television advertising will dip by the end of 2013 – with overall U.S. advertising gains up 2.5 percent, says MoffettNathanson Research. The firm says total TV advertising will sink 0.8 percent, with national cable up 6 percent for the year.

Local TV stations will sink 6 percent, with the big four broadcast networks down 4.2 percent. Local cable will drop 4 percent and national syndication will be flat. Analysts say the blame lies with no political campaigns or Olympics.

But 2014 estimates say TV advertising will jump 6.4 percent, with local TV stations gaining the best results – up 9 percent because of political and Olympics ad money. Overall U.S. advertising is expected to gain 2.5 percent this year and 5.5 percent next year.

Other 2014 predictions include:

  • Internet advertising – display and search – will rise 15 percent
  • Newspapers will be down 7 percent
  • Radio will be essentially flat – up 0.2 percent
  • Consumer magazines will slip 1 percent
  • Outdoor will be up 3 percent

In fourth-quarter 2013, MoffettNathanson says cable networks will climb 6.6 percent to $5.8 billion. Disney cable networks – including ESPN – will be up 8 percent to $1.23 billion. Viacom networks will rise 5 percent to $1.15 billion; Time Warner networks, which include Turner Broadcasting, will grow 5 percent to $1 billion; and NBCUniversal cable channels will add 2.9 percent to reach $904 million.

Other smaller groups will also see significant gains. Fox cable networks will grow 9 percent to $456 million; Discovery will rise 8 percent to $429 million; and Scripps Networks Interactive will climb 6.5 percent to 436 million.

The faster-growing AMC Network – coming off a small advertising base – will leap 30 percent to $204 million.

Among broadcast networks, Fox will see an 8-percent gain during the period to reach $1.04 billion; CBS will rise 6 percent to $1.26 billion; ABC will only gain 1.2 percent to $942 million.

MoffettNathanson did not analyze NBC network results. Overall, national TV advertising is estimated to see a 6-percent rise in the fourth quarter.

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